They said that the Credit Crunch, like World War One, would be over by Christmas - last Christmas, that is. Both started in August. Your country needs you (the taxpayer) now! So now, to extend the analogy, it's 1915 and the bloodiest phase is just beginning. Next year, it's the Battle of the Somme when, if things go according to the same plan, most taxpayers will be bankrupt or severely wounded.
Never again, they said after the Great War was over, just as they are saying again right now. But as we all know very well, 'never again' lasts about 5 minutes. The rules of the game have changed 'forever', said one journalist last week. 'Forever' lasts about as long as never.
World War One lasted four years, as every schoolboy used to know, which was then followed by the biggest Wall Street spending spree since the last time one happened. Never again, they said, after it all went belly up and the economy nose-dived, only recovering with rearmament and then, once again, another big war.
The economy eventually recovered in 1954 from its last peak in 1929. Not everyone, of course, was fortunate to enjoy the recovery because they had been killed in the war which had saved the economy from ruin. 25 years to recover with a world war thrown in to the mix. So if history repeats itself, it will be 2032 before the economy is back to 'normal' and there will be a world war around 2017, ending in 2023.
Like Germany in the 1920s and 1930s, Russia has got rid of the ancien regime and has had a tough time on the economic front, apart from a few rich people at the top who like the Jews in Germany in the 1930s, are increasingly unpopular at home and some have sought refuge abroad.
Like Germany in the 1930s, a little bit of military interventionism never goes amiss with ominous warnings that whenever their fellow countrymen are threatened in any way, in any place, there will be consequences (i.e. another country will be invaded). And then all hell will break lose and the Channel Tunnel will be closed to stop invaders.
A late intervention by the Chinese will save the day and the US will be a shadow of its former self, and start calling its relationship with China 'special'.
Once it's all over - the war, that is - some bright spark will think that the only way for the economy to recover is to deregulate everything and let the market decide. Houses will shoot up to a £1 trillion on average and bonus payments to brokers will be worth more than Pluto and Neptune real estate put together.
Soon the whole solar system will have had its title deeds sold and so the rich have to start looking farther afield to other constellations where there are real business opportunities, including (if you are not yet a trillionaire) timeshare options on dwarf stars. Then it will all crash again because the whole edifice was built on a cloud of gaseous planets and black holes.
Never again, they will say.
And so on.
© Andrew Hawkins 2008
Forever.
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